A NEW PEW POLL ON GLOBAL WARMING
A new poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press asked about global warming and its causes. A press release summarizes, “The survey … finds that 69% say there is solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades. That is little changed from last October (67%), but up 12 points since October 2009. At the same time, however, the percentage of Americans who say that global warming is a very serious problem has slipped six points, from 39% to 33%, since last October. Current opinions about whether global warming is a very serious problem are similar to those in 2009 and 2010.”
Asked, “From what you’ve read and heard, is there solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades, or not?” 69% of respondents said yes, 27% said no, 1% said that the evidence was mixed, and 4% said that they didn’t know or refused to answer the question. The Pew Research Center asked the same question at intervals from June 2006 onward; acceptance of global warming was at its highest in July 2006, with 79% of respondents answering that there is solid evidence for it, and at its lowest in February/March 2011, with 58% answering that there is solid evidence for it.
Of the 69% who said yes, 42% agreed that the warming was mostly because of human activity such as burning fossil fuels, 23% agreed that it was mostly because of natural patterns in the earth’s environment, and 4% said that they didn’t know or refused to answer the question. The Pew Research Center asked the same question at intervals from June 2006 onward; acceptance of the human cause of global warming was at its highest in July 2006, with 50% of respondents attributing global warming mostly to human activity, and at its lowest in October 2010, with 34% attributing global warming mostly to human activity.
Asked, “In your view, is global warming a very serious problem, somewhat serious, not too serious, or not a problem?” 33% of respondents said that it was very serious, 32% said that it is somewhat serious, 13% said that it not too serious, 20% said that it not a problem, and 2% said that they didn’t know or refused to answer the question. In past polls, the greatest percentage of respondents regarding global warming as a very serious problem was 47%, in April/May 2009, and the lowest percentage was 32%, in October 2010. A majority of respondents have always regarded global warming as somewhat or very serious.
The press release commented, “There has been a sizable partisan gap in views about whether there is solid evidence of global warming since the Pew Research Center began asking this question in 2006. In the current survey, almost twice as many Democrats (87%) as Republicans (44%) say there is solid evidence that the average temperature on earth has been rising. Further, Democrats are three times as likely as Republicans to say that human activity is mostly causing global warming (57% vs. 19%).” There was a similar gap with regard to the seriousness of global warming: 48% of Democrats regarded it as very serious but only 19% of Republicans agreed.
According to the Pew Research Center, “The analysis in this report is based on telephone interviews conducted March 13-17, 2013, among a national sample of 1,501 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia (750 respondents were interviewed on a landline telephone, and 751 were interviewed on a cell phone, including 385 who had no landline telephone). The survey was conducted by Abt SRBI.” The sample was weighted using demographic considerations and to match current “current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones.” The sample error for the total sample was +/ 2.9%.
For the press release, visit:
http://www.people-press.org/2013/04/02/keystone-xl-pipeline-draws-broad-support/
For the complete report and the topline questionnaire (PDF), visit:
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-questionnaires/4-2-13%20topline%20for%20release.pdf
And for NCSE’s collection of polls and surveys on climate change, visit:
http://ncse.com/polls/polls-climate-change
POLLING REPUBLICANS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
A new report from the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication and the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication suggests that a slim majority of Republicans accept that climate change is happening. The researchers surveyed 726 adults who recently identified themselves as Republicans or Republican-leaning independent voters.
When presented with a definition of climate change as “the idea that the world’s average temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that other aspects of the world’s climate may change as a result,” and asked “Do you think that climate change is happening,” 52% answered yes, 26% answered no, and 22% answered don’t know.
When asked “To what degree do you agree with the Republican Party’s position on the issue of climate change?” 9% of respondents strongly agreed, 25% moderately agreed, 34% neither agreed nor disagreed, 6% moderately disagreed, and 4% strongly agreed. The Republican party’s position on climate change was not specified in the poll question. The sample for the survey was drawn from adults who identified themselves as Republicans or Republican-leaning in previous Climate Change in the American Mind surveys. The average margin of sampling error was +/- 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Demographics were weighted with data from the most recent Current Population Survey.
For the report (PDF), visit:
http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/Republican_Views_on_Climate_Change.pdf
And for NCSE’s collection of polls and surveys on climate change, visit:
http://ncse.com/polls/polls-climate-change
WILL CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL INHERIT THE WIND?
NCSE’s Josh Rosenau contributed “Will Climate Change Denial Inherit the Wind?” to Mobilizing Ideas, the blog of the Center for the Study of Social Movements at the University of Notre Dame. “The persistence of the creationist movement is a remarkable example of the power of social movements, and provides a valuable lesson for students of other anti-science movements,” he argued. After reviewing the strategies that have enabled creationism to flourish, he suggested, “A similar dynamic may be forming around the science of climate change as well, and social movement theory will play a key role in understanding that battle—and perhaps in sparing climate science from being doomed, like evolution, to be used as a shibboleth for political factions.” “Just as the creationist movement’s persistence grew out of its success in linking religious identity with creationist belief, there is a danger that climate change denial could establish itself as a permanent feature of American politics if denialist beliefs establish themselves as core parts of the conservative identity,” Rosenau observed, citing the shifts with regard to climate change of nationally prominent Republican politicians through the dozen years of the twenty-first century. But there are, he added, encouraging signs that “the climate change denial movement may not be able to fully merge with movement conservatism, averting the danger that climate change denial would join creationism as a permanent feature of the American sociopolitical landscape.”
For Rosenau’s essay, visit:
Will Climate Change Denial Inherit the Wind?
Thanks for reading. And don’t forget to visit NCSE’s website—http://ncse.com—where you can always find the latest news on evolution and climate education and threats to them.
Glenn Branch Deputy Director National Center for Science Education, Inc.